Inversion of the Yield Curve is a leading Indicator of a Recession
“We are entering a period when over the next six to nine months something could go wrong and historically, it’s when the yield curve steepens,” says Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass. He explains that if the steepening continues, it will cause serious damage to equity markets and the economy because “the inversion of the yield curve is a leading indicator of a recession.” He believes it’s likely that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, but it will keep the federal-funds rate above the level of inflation for 24 to 27 months. “That’s what worries me… They are not talking about cutting rates even if inflation slows down,” he says. And he stresses that the impact of the Fed’s aggressive rate-hike policy hasn’t settled into the economy. “We’re entering the periods where the macro lags are more likely to kick in because the curve has been inverted already for 17 months and it’s now steepening back,” he says. Finally, he advises investors to decrease exposure to equity markets and invest in treasuries.
Credit to : Stansberry Research
